Benutzer:Nils Simon/Klimatologie/Hurrikans

An dieser Stelle sind wissenschaftliche Studien gesammelt, die sich mit dem Thema w:Hurrikane und w:globale Erwärmung beschäftigen.

Die Frage, wie stark die globale Erwärmung auf Hurrikane einwirkt und diese verstärkt, wird seit spätestens 2005 kontrovers diskutiert. Aus diesem Grund habe ich auf dieser Benutzerseite alle relevanten wissenschaftlichen Studien zum Thema gesammelt, anhand deren Wikipedia-Artikel ausgerichtet werden können.

Bereitgestellt sind immer die Autor/innen, der Titel, der Abstract sowie ein Link zur Studie, wenn verfügbar.

Neueste Studien bitte oben anfügen!

2007

Kossin et al.

28. Februar:

Kossin, J.P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane und B. A. Harper (2007): A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends, in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL028836 (PDF)

"Recently documented trends in the existing records of hurricane intensity and their relationship to increasing sea surface temperatures suggest that hurricane intensity may be increasing due to global warming. However, it is presently being argued that the existing global hurricane records are too inconsistent to accurately measure trends. As a first step in addressing this debate, we constructed a more homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity and found that previously documented trends in some ocean basins are well supported, but in others the existing records contain trends that may be inflated or spurious."

2006

Santer et al.

11. September:

Human Activities Are Boosting Ocean Temperatures in Areas Where Hurricanes Form, New Study Finds

Curry et al.

August:

J. A. Curry, P. J. Webster, and G. J. Holland (2006): Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity, in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, S. 1025–1037, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-8-1025 (PDF)

kein Abstract

<ref name="Curry et al. 2006">Curry, J.A., P. J. Webster und G. J. Holland (2006): '''Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity''', in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, S. 1025–1037, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-8-1025 [http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/87/8/pdf/i1520-0477-87-8-1025.pdf (PDF)]</nowiki>

Trenberth/Shea

27. Juni 2006:

Trenberth, Kevin E. und Dennis J. Shea (2006): Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L12704, 27. Juni (PDF)

"The 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season (1 June to 30 November) was the most active on record by several measures, surpassing the very active season of 2004 and causing an unprecedented level of damage. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region critical for hurricanes (10° to 20°N) were at record high levels in the extended summer (June to October) of 2005 at 0.9°C above the 1901–70 normal and were a major reason for the record hurricane season. Changes in TNA SSTs are associated with a pattern of natural variation known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). However, previous AMO indices are conflated with linear trends and a revised AMO index accounts for between 0 and 0.1°C of the 2005 SST anomaly. About 0.45°C of the SST anomaly is common to global SST and is thus linked to global warming and, based on regression, about 0.2°C stemmed from after-effects of the 2004–05 El Nino."

<ref name="Trenberth und Shea 2006">Trenberth, Kevin E. und Dennis J. Shea (2006): ''Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005'', in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L12704, 27. Juni [http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenberth.pdf/TrenberthSheaHurricanes2006GRL026894.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Mann/Emanuel

13. Juni 2006:

Mann, Michael E. und Kerry A. Emanuel (2006): Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change, in: Eos, Vol. 87, No. 24 (PDF)

"Increases in key measures of Atlantic hurricane activity over recent decades are believed to reflect, in large part, contemporaneous increases in tropical Atlantic warmth [e.g., Emanuel, 2005]. Some recent studies [e.g., Goldenberg et al., 2001] have attributed these increases to a natural climate cycle termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while other studies suggest that climate change may instead be playing the dominant role [Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005]. Using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity. In addition, this analysis indicates that late twentieth century tropospheric aerosol cooling has offset a substantial fraction of anthropogenic warming in the region and has thus likely suppressed even greater potential increases in tropical cyclone activity."

<ref name="Mann/Emanuel 2006">Mann, Michael E. und Kerry A. Emanuel (2006): ''Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change'' [http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/articles/MannEmanuelEos06.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Klotzbach

20. Mai:

Klotzbach, Philipp (2006): Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005), in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L10805 (PDF)

"The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2�–0.4�C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4–5 hurricanes from the period 1986–1995 to the period 1996–2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs."

<ref name="Klotzbach 2006">Klotzbach, Philipp (2006): ''Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005)'', in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L10805, 20. Mai [http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2006.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Michaels et al.

Oberflächentemperaturen der Meere im Jahr 2001. Ab 26,5°C können sich Hurrikane bilden.

10. Mai:

Michaels, Patrick J., Paul C. Knappenberger und Robert E. Davis (2006): Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, in Geophysical Research Letter, Vol. 33 (PDF)

"Whereas there is a significant relationship between overall sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity, the relationship is much less clear in the upper range of SST normally associated with these storms. There, we find a step-like, rather than a continuous, influence of SST on cyclone strength, suggesting that there exists a SST threshold that must be exceeded before tropical cyclones develop into major hurricanes. Further, we show that the SST influence varies markedly over time, thereby indicating that other aspects of the tropical environment are also critically important for tropical cyclone intensification. These findings highlight the complex nature of hurricane development and weaken the notion of a simple cause-andeffect relationship between rising SST and stronger Atlantic hurricanes."

<ref name="Michaels et al. 2006">Michaels, Patrick J., Paul C. Knappenberger und Robert E. Davis (2006): ''Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin'', in Geophysical Research Letter, Vol. 33, Mai [http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Hoyos et al.

7. April 2006:

C. D. Hoyos, P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry (2006): Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity, in Science, Vol. 312, S. 94-97 (PDF)

"To better understand the change in global hurricane intensity since 1970, we examined the joint distribution of hurricane intensity with variables identified in the literature as contributing to the intensification of hurricanes. We used a methodology based on information theory, isolating the trend from the shorter-term natural modes of variability. The results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970–2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature; other aspects of the tropical environment, although they influence shorter-term variations in hurricane intensity, do not contribute substantially to the observed global trend."

<ref name="Hoyos et al. 2006">Hoyos, C.D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster und J. A. Curry (2006): ''Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity'', in Science, Vol. 312, S. 94-97 [http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2006c.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

2005

Das überflutete New Orleans in Folge von Hurrikan Katrina.

Scharroo et al.

4. Oktober:

Scharroo, Remko, Walter H. F. Smith und John L. Lillibridge (2005): Satellite Altimetry and the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina, in: EOS, Vol. 86, No. 40, 4. Oktober, S. 366-367 (PDF)

kein Abstract.

<ref name="Scharroo et al. 2005">Scharroo, Remko, Walter H. F. Smith und John L. Lillibridge (2005): ''Satellite Altimetry and the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina'', in: EOS, Vol. 86, No. 40, 4. Oktober, S. 366-367 [http://www.thestormtrack.com/articles/Katrina_altimetry.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Pezza/Simmonds

Der erste je im Südatlantik entdeckte Zyklon Catarina traf Brasilien Ende März 2004.

12. August:

Pezza, Alexandre Bernandes und Ian Simmonds (2005): The first South Atlantic hurricane: Unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change, in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L15712, siehe Abstract online

"In March 2004 the first-ever reported hurricane in the South Atlantic hit southern Brazil. Here we show that Catarina initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system, undergoing Tropical Transition two days later under persistent low vertical wind shear over near-average water temperatures. The trajectory derived from an automatic tracking scheme showed a rare loop before the cyclone approached the coast for a second time. The vertical structure presented anticyclonic relative vorticity above and a small 300 hPa warm core embedded in a cold area. A mid-to-high latitude-blocking index showed that the five days before the genesis were in the 0.6% first percentile of intensity considered over the last 25 years, followed by an unprecedented combination with low shear. The observed and predicted trends towards an increasingly positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in global warming scenarios could favor similar conditions, increasing the probability of more Tropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic."

<ref name="Pezza/Simmonds 2005">Pezza, Alexandre Bernandes und Ian Simmonds (2005):''The first South Atlantic hurricane: Unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change'', in: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L15712, siehe Abstract [http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2005GL023390.shtml online]</ref>

Webster et al.

16. September:

Webster, P.J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry und H.-R. Chang (2005): Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, in: Science Vol. 309, No. 5742 Online

"We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade."

<ref name="Webster 2005">Webster, P.J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry und H.-R. Chang (2005): ''Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment'', in: Science Vol. 309, No. 5742 vom 16. September, siehe Abstract [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844 online]</ref>

Emanuel

31. Juli:

Emanuel, Kerry (2005): Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, in: Nature, 31. Juli, doi: 10.1038/nature03906, siehe Abstract online

"Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency3, 4 and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century."

<ref name="Emanuel 2005">Emanuel, Kerry (2005): ''Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years'', in: Nature, 31. Juli, doi: 10.1038/nature03906, siehe Abstract [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nature03906.html online]</ref>

2004

Knutson et al.

15. September:

Knutson, Thomas R. und Robert E. Tuleya (2004): Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization, in: Journal of Climate Vol. 17, No. 18 (PDF)

"Previous studies have found that idealized hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense and have higher precipitation rates than under present-day conditions. The present study explores the sensitivity of this result to the choice of climate model used to define the CO2-warmed environment and to the choice of convective parameterization used in the nested regional model that simulates the hurricanes. Approximately 1300 five-day idealized simulations are performed using a higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels). All storms were embedded in a uniform 5 m s21 easterly background flow. The large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for the experiments— atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs—are derived from nine different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP21) climate models. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate models, based on 80-yr linear trends from 11% yr21 CO2 increase experiments, range from about 10.88 to 12.48C in the three tropical storm basins studied. Four different moist convection parameterizations are tested in the hurricane model, including the use of no convective parameterization in the highest resolution inner grid. Nearly all combinations of climate model boundary conditions and hurricane model convection schemes show a CO2-induced increase in both storm intensity and near-storm precipitation rates. The aggregate results, averaged across all experiments, indicate a 14% increase in central pressure fall, a 6% increase in maximum surface wind speed, and an 18% increase in average precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm center. The fractional change in precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization than is the fractional change of intensity. Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate model environments, yield an average increase of intensity (pressure fall) of 8% (Emanuel) to 16% (Holland) for the high-CO2 environments. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is 21% higher on average in the high-CO2 environments. One implication of the results is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse gas–induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms."

<ref name="Knutson 2004">Knutson, Thomas R. und Robert E. Tuleya (2004): ''Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization'', in: Journal of Climate Vol. 17, No. 18 vom 15. September [http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf (PDF)]</ref>

Siehe auch

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